US fatalities growth rate decreasing?

As of April 19, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting  60,308 US COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1]  (Down from their  prediction of 68,841 a few days earlier, and from a prediction 61,545 for that date made on April 12.)

Essentially, this is a contest between the Stupid-Simple  Model (SSM) and the IHME. On April 12, the IHME predicted 61,545 deaths by Aug 4. And on that same day, the SSM predicted more fatalities than that by April 22. 

 

Yesterday the SSM still predicted the count would be higher than that on April 22. But the most recent growth in the rate of fatalities was smaller than on any day so far this month. And accordingly, today it is not anticipating surpassing the IHME Aug 4 number until April 27.

 

For the IHME to be right, there will have to be a continued rapid drop in the reported fatality growth rate. That is quite possible, but anything can happen, including Trump announcing tomorrow that social distancing should immediately end so that states can “liberate” themselves.

 

 

Below is the recent growth in fatality rates:


2020-04-01: 1.24
2020-04-02: 1.26
2020-04-03: 1.18
2020-04-04: 1.13
2020-04-05: 1.13
2020-04-06: 1.14
2020-04-07: 1.19
2020-04-08: 1.15
2020-04-09: 1.13
2020-04-10: 1.12
2020-04-11: 1.1
2020-04-12: 1.08
2020-04-13: 1.07
2020-04-14: 1.1
2020-04-15: 1.1
2020-04-16: 1.16
2020-04-17: 1.12
2020-04-18: 1.05

For the SSM, I  average the last 8 days’ exponential growth and get 1.0964. We then take yesterday’s numbers:

2020-04-18: Deaths: 1,891; Accumulated deaths: 38,664

 

Finally, we project forward using that rate of exponential growth applied daily, seeing that the SSM anticipates more fatalities April 27 than the IHME predicts for Aug 4. 

2020-04-19: Increase: 2,073 Total: 40,737
2020-04-20: Increase: 2,272 Total: 43,010
2020-04-21: Increase: 2,491 Total: 45,502
2020-04-22: Increase: 2,732 Total: 48,234
2020-04-23: Increase: 2,995 Total: 51,229
2020-04-24: Increase: 3,283 Total: 54,513
2020-04-25: Increase: 3,600 Total: 58,114
2020-04-26: Increase: 3,947 Total: 62,061
2020-04-27: Increase: 4,327 Total: 66,389
2020-04-28: Increase: 4,744 Total: 71,133
2020-04-29: Increase: 5,201 Total: 76,335
2020-04-30: Increase: 5,703 Total: 82,038
2020-05-01: Increase: 6,252 Total: 88,291
2020-05-02: Increase: 6,855 Total: 95,146

[1] https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Comments

[Gareth]

Any updates, Gary?

[Gary Robinson]

Gareth: Your wish is my command!

[Gareth]

Thanks, Gary. Thorsten put me in the penalty box for a week.

[Gary Robinson]

Oh that's right. Thomas is incorrigible and still entirely unapologetic. I'm probably going to respond to his last post but I'm kind of busy. You're seeing things posted in the list, right?

[Gareth]

Yes, I am able to see the postings. I thought your response tonight was very clear and well-spoken.