Essentially, this is a contest between the Stupid-Simple Model (SSM) and the IHME. On April 12, the IHME predicted 61,545 deaths by Aug 4. And on that same day, the SSM predicted more fatalities than that by April 22.
2020-04-01: 1.24
2020-04-02: 1.26
2020-04-03: 1.18
2020-04-04: 1.13
2020-04-05: 1.13
2020-04-06: 1.14
2020-04-07: 1.19
2020-04-08: 1.15
2020-04-09: 1.13
2020-04-10: 1.12
2020-04-11: 1.1
2020-04-12: 1.08
2020-04-13: 1.07
2020-04-14: 1.1
2020-04-15: 1.1
2020-04-16: 1.16
2020-04-17: 1.12
2020-04-18: 1.05
For the SSM, I average the last 8 days’ exponential growth and get 1.0964. We then take yesterday’s numbers:
2020-04-19: Increase: 2,073 Total: 40,737
2020-04-20: Increase: 2,272 Total: 43,010
2020-04-21: Increase: 2,491 Total: 45,502
2020-04-22: Increase: 2,732 Total: 48,234
2020-04-23: Increase: 2,995 Total: 51,229
2020-04-24: Increase: 3,283 Total: 54,513
2020-04-25: Increase: 3,600 Total: 58,114
2020-04-26: Increase: 3,947 Total: 62,061
2020-04-27: Increase: 4,327 Total: 66,389
2020-04-28: Increase: 4,744 Total: 71,133
2020-04-29: Increase: 5,201 Total: 76,335
2020-04-30: Increase: 5,703 Total: 82,038
2020-05-01: Increase: 6,252 Total: 88,291
2020-05-02: Increase: 6,855 Total: 95,146
[1] https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
Any updates, Gary?
Posted by: Gareth | April 24, 2020 at 08:48 AM
Gareth: Your wish is my command!
Posted by: Gary Robinson | April 24, 2020 at 02:35 PM
Thanks, Gary. Thorsten put me in the penalty box for a week.
Posted by: Gareth | April 24, 2020 at 05:10 PM
Oh that's right. Thomas is incorrigible and still entirely unapologetic. I'm probably going to respond to his last post but I'm kind of busy. You're seeing things posted in the list, right?
Posted by: Gary Robinson | April 24, 2020 at 07:03 PM
Yes, I am able to see the postings. I thought your response tonight was very clear and well-spoken.
Posted by: Gareth | April 25, 2020 at 12:01 AM