Essentially, this is a contest between the SSM and the IHME’s predictions that were made on April 12. On April 12, the IHME predicted 61,545 deaths by Aug 4. And on that same day, the SSM predicted more fatalities than that by April 22. It’s now past April 22, so the SSM was wrong. However, it still appears that it may turn out to be _much_more correct than the IHME.

While the contest is to see whose predictions for August 4 that were made on April 12 were more correct, both models are still being updated. Today, the SSM is predicting almost exactly 61,545 deaths (specifically, 61,493) on April 26, just 2 days from now.

Below is the recent growth in fatality rates. It depicts the multiplicative factor by which one day’s count of fatalities was more than the day before's:

2020-04-01: 1.24

2020-04-02: 1.26

2020-04-03: 1.18

2020-04-04: 1.13

2020-04-05: 1.13

2020-04-06: 1.14

2020-04-07: 1.19

2020-04-08: 1.15

2020-04-09: 1.13

2020-04-10: 1.12

2020-04-11: 1.1

2020-04-12: 1.08

2020-04-13: 1.07

2020-04-14: 1.1

2020-04-15: 1.1

2020-04-16: 1.16

2020-04-17: 1.12

2020-04-18: 1.05

2020-04-19: 1.05

2020-04-20: 1.04

2020-04-21: 1.06

2020-04-22: 1.05

2020-04-23: 1.07

For the SSM, we average the last 8 days’ exponential growth and get 1.0742. We then take yesterday’s numbers:

2020-04-23: Deaths: 3,329; Accumulated deaths: 49,951

Finally, we project forward using that rate of exponential growth applied daily:

2020-04-24: Increase: 3,575 Total: 53,526

2020-04-25: Increase: 3,841 Total: 57,368

2020-04-26: Increase: 4,125 Total: 61,493

2020-04-27: Increase: 4,431 Total: 65,925

2020-04-28: Increase: 4,760 Total: 70,686

2020-04-29: Increase: 5,113 Total: 75,800

2020-04-30: Increase: 5,493 Total: 81,293

2020-05-01: Increase: 5,900 Total: 87,193

2020-05-02: Increase: 6,338 Total: 93,531

2020-05-03: Increase: 6,808 Total: 100,340

2020-05-04: Increase: 7,313 Total: 107,653

2020-05-05: Increase: 7,855 Total: 115,508

2020-05-06: Increase: 8,438 Total: 123,946

2020-05-07: Increase: 9,063 Total: 133,010[1] https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

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