COVID-19 update April 8

[I will be updating this daily for the foreseeable future.]

A very simple,  two-week-ahead COVID-19 fatalities  predictor. The main purpose of this predictor is to give a better sense of the implications of  exponential growth to viewers who may not have a strong intuitive sense of that. Also, it’s for people like me who simply want to know: “If conditions stay as they are, where will we be in two weeks?” Finally, if it spurs discussion about the causes for changes in the exponential growth factors, that would be great too.

Daily change in exponential growth factors:

2020-03-30: 1.21
2020-03-31: 1.3
2020-04-01: 1.23
2020-04-02: 1.25
2020-04-03: 1.2
2020-04-04: 1.19
2020-04-05: 1.14
2020-04-06: 1.12
2020-04-07: 1.18

COMMENTARY: 
The most recent exponential growth rate rose a bit.

Yesterday’s US fatalities: 12,718

Predicted total  fatalities for the US based on the average growth rate for the most  recent 3 days:

2020-04-08: 14,604
2020-04-09: 16,771
2020-04-10: 19,259
2020-04-11: 22,116
2020-04-12: 25,397
2020-04-13: 29,164
2020-04-14: 33,491
2020-04-15: 38,459
2020-04-16: 44,165
2020-04-17: 50,716
2020-04-18: 58,240
2020-04-19: 66,880
2020-04-20: 76,801
2020-04-21: 88,195