[I will be updating this daily for the foreseeable future.]
A very simple, two-week-ahead COVID-19 fatalities predictor. The main purpose of this predictor is to give a better sense of the implications of exponential growth to viewers who may not have a strong intuitive sense of that. Also, it’s for people like me who simply want to know: “If conditions stay as they are, where will we be in two weeks?” Finally, if it spurs discussion about the causes for changes in the exponential growth factors, that would be great too.
Daily change in exponential growth factors:
2020-03-27: 1.31
2020-03-28: 1.28
2020-03-29: 1.22
2020-03-30: 1.21
2020-03-31: 1.3
2020-04-01: 1.23
2020-04-02: 1.25
2020-04-03: 1.2
2020-04-04: 1.19
2020-04-05: 1.14
COMMENTARY:
The most recent exponential growth rate is the lowest yet. This may indicate a temporary slowdown, or a long-term one. Perhaps it’s driven by the slowdown in NYC. Deaths in NYC for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday were 630, 599, and 594, respectively. That slowdown is probably because of the high level of social distancing occurring there. Without it, the rates would have been much higher even if there were an infinite supply of hospital beds on ventilators, but there aren’t, so the death rates would have been even higher.
Yesterday’s US fatalities: 9,616
Predicted total fatalities for the US based on the average growth rate for the most recent 3 days:
2020-04-06: 11,303
2020-04-07: 13,287
2020-04-08: 15,620
2020-04-09: 18,361
2020-04-10: 21,584
2020-04-11: 25,373
2020-04-12: 29,827
2020-04-13: 35,062
2020-04-14: 41,216
2020-04-15: 48,451
2020-04-16: 56,955
2020-04-17: 66,952
2020-04-18: 78,704
2020-04-19: 92,518
COMMENTARY: Yesterday’s model predicted a total of 120,378 on 4/18. So today’s 78,704 is quite a change for that date, showing the power of relatively small changes to an exponential growth rate. Let’s hope the growth rate continues getting smaller.
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