As of April 13, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is still predicting 61,545 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1]
Here is the recent growth in fatality rates. You’ll notice that the rate was lower yesterday than on any other day since the 6th. Maybe the last couple days are the start of the drop that will make it plausible that will have so few deaths by Aug 4. This would almost certainly be due to the extreme social distancing measures in the US kicking in, after a lag of a couple weeks, to affect daily death rates.
2020-04-02: 1.26
2020-04-03: 1.23
2020-04-04: 1.18
2020-04-05: 1.14
2020-04-06: 1.04
2020-04-07: 1.18
2020-04-08: 1.16
2020-04-09: 1.12
2020-04-10: 1.13
2020-04-11: 1.1
2020-04-12: 1.08
For my own Stupid-Simple Model (SSM), I average the last 4 days’ exponential growth and get 1.1066. We then take yesterday’s numbers:
2020-04-12: Deaths: 1,560; Accumulated deaths: 22,014
Finally, we project forward using the SSM, seeing that the SSM anticipates more fatalities by 12 days from now (Apr 25) than the IHME predicts for Aug 4. However, when I made the same extrapolations two days ago, it only took only until Apr 20 for that to happen. Is this the beginning of the trend where our curve stretches out to become similar to the IHME projections? We’ll know more tomorrow.
2020-04-13: Increase: 1,726 Total: 23,740
2020-04-14: Increase: 1,910 Total: 25,650
2020-04-15: Increase: 2,113 Total: 27,764
2020-04-16: Increase: 2,339 Total: 30,103
2020-04-17: Increase: 2,588 Total: 32,692
2020-04-18: Increase: 2,864 Total: 35,556
2020-04-19: Increase: 3,169 Total: 38,726
2020-04-20: Increase: 3,507 Total: 42,233
2020-04-21: Increase: 3,881 Total: 46,114
2020-04-22: Increase: 4,295 Total: 50,409
2020-04-23: Increase: 4,752 Total: 55,162
2020-04-24: Increase: 5,259 Total: 60,422
2020-04-25: Increase: 5,819 Total: 66,241
2020-04-26: Increase: 6,440 Total: 72,682
Here is the recent growth in fatality rates. You’ll notice that the rate was lower yesterday than on any other day since the 6th. Maybe the last couple days are the start of the drop that will make it plausible that will have so few deaths by Aug 4. This would almost certainly be due to the extreme social distancing measures in the US kicking in, after a lag of a couple weeks, to affect daily death rates.
2020-04-02: 1.26
2020-04-03: 1.23
2020-04-04: 1.18
2020-04-05: 1.14
2020-04-06: 1.04
2020-04-07: 1.18
2020-04-08: 1.16
2020-04-09: 1.12
2020-04-10: 1.13
2020-04-11: 1.1
2020-04-12: 1.08
For my own Stupid-Simple Model (SSM), I average the last 4 days’ exponential growth and get 1.1066. We then take yesterday’s numbers:
2020-04-12: Deaths: 1,560; Accumulated deaths: 22,014
Finally, we project forward using the SSM, seeing that the SSM anticipates more fatalities by 12 days from now (Apr 25) than the IHME predicts for Aug 4. However, when I made the same extrapolations two days ago, it only took only until Apr 20 for that to happen. Is this the beginning of the trend where our curve stretches out to become similar to the IHME projections? We’ll know more tomorrow.
2020-04-13: Increase: 1,726 Total: 23,740
2020-04-14: Increase: 1,910 Total: 25,650
2020-04-15: Increase: 2,113 Total: 27,764
2020-04-16: Increase: 2,339 Total: 30,103
2020-04-17: Increase: 2,588 Total: 32,692
2020-04-18: Increase: 2,864 Total: 35,556
2020-04-19: Increase: 3,169 Total: 38,726
2020-04-20: Increase: 3,507 Total: 42,233
2020-04-21: Increase: 3,881 Total: 46,114
2020-04-22: Increase: 4,295 Total: 50,409
2020-04-23: Increase: 4,752 Total: 55,162
2020-04-24: Increase: 5,259 Total: 60,422
2020-04-25: Increase: 5,819 Total: 66,241
2020-04-26: Increase: 6,440 Total: 72,682
[1] https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
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