As of April 12, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation is predicting 61,545 COVID-19 deaths by August 4, 2020.[1]
Here is the recent growth in fatality rates. You’ll notice that the rate was lower yesterday than on any other day since the 6th. Maybe this is the start of the drop that will make it plausible that will have so few deaths by Aug 4. This would almost certainly be due to the extreme social distancing measures in the US kicking in, after a lag of a couple weeks, to affect daily death rates.
2020-04-04: 1.18
2020-04-05: 1.14
2020-04-06: 1.04
2020-04-07: 1.18
2020-04-08: 1.16
2020-04-09: 1.12
2020-04-10: 1.13
2020-04-11: 1.1
For my own Stupid-Simple Model (SSM), I average the last 4 days’ exponential growth and get 1.1263. We then take yesterday’s numbers:
2020-04-11: Deaths: 1,876; Accumulated deaths: 20,454
Finally, we project forward using the SSM, seeing that the SSM anticipates more fatalities by 10 days from now (On Apr 22) than the IHME predicts for Aug 4. However, when I made the same extrapolations yesterday, it only took only until Apr 20 for that to happen. Is this the beginning of the trend where our curve stretches out to become similar to the IHME projections? We’ll know more tomorrow.
2020-04-12: Increase: 2,112 Total: 22,566
2020-04-13: Increase: 2,379 Total: 24,946
2020-04-14: Increase: 2,680 Total: 27,627
2020-04-15: Increase: 3,018 Total: 30,646
2020-04-16: Increase: 3,400 Total: 34,046
2020-04-17: Increase: 3,829 Total: 37,875
2020-04-18: Increase: 4,313 Total: 42,189
2020-04-19: Increase: 4,858 Total: 47,047
2020-04-20: Increase: 5,471 Total: 52,518
2020-04-21: Increase: 6,162 Total: 58,681
2020-04-22: Increase: 6,941 Total: 65,622
2020-04-23: Increase: 7,817 Total: 73,440
2020-04-24: Increase: 8,805 Total: 82,245
2020-04-25: Increase: 9,917 Total: 92,162
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